Are the Tories really headed for a landslide victory?

By Alok Mitra, CEO Ethnic Minority Business Group, 5 December 2009

The media appears to be dominated with the bad news stories about the Labour party and UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown in particular. Even the Iraq enquiry is confirming what many already believe, that is that we went to war on the basis of the "dodgy dossier". 'The Sun' newspaper that is well-known for blowing in the direction of the prevailing political wind, have come out in favour of the Conservative party. Once the government starts to look like a party about to lose, the media and others think that they are "fair game". A string of bad headlines follow, everything is more critically reviewed and businesses start to court the party likely to win.

The Sun published a poll in the summer showing Labour at 18% and the Conservatives at 40%. A more recently published opinion poll puts Labour at 29% and the Conservative party at 39%. Against this background one would think that the Conservative party has the election in the bag and it is a "done deal".

From speaking to our members at the Ethnic Minority Business Group and also listening to the opinions of the wider public, we are detecting a far less clear-cut picture. Our analysis, at present shows that the Labour party is still very unpopular and this could get worse as the Iraq enquiry unfolds. However, the worst for Labour is probably over and there are still many disillusioned Labour voters who want change but still do not fully trust the Conservative party.

Even on the economy that has undoubtedly suffered under Labour, George Osborne has so far failed to convince much of the public that he has all the right answers to our economic problems. Politically, he appears to have left himself open to the charge that he is from a privileged background and is pro the wealthier members of our society.

The Conservative party will win, but by a much reduced margin

EMBG members believe that the Conservative party are likely to win the next general election but on a much reduced margin than the media would have us believe. There are a number of reasons for this. Firstly, Labour’s boundary changes mean that the Conservatives will need a very big swing to win a large number of seats, which will not be an easy task. Secondly, the economy is also starting to recover and is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2010. At least that is what many economists and the government are predicting. This should help Labour. The country wants change but if the Labour party can show that they are changing and that they would be no worse than the Tories at managing the economy then their chances may greatly improve.

Europe and immigration may still split the Conservative vote as the fringe parties such as UKIP pick up some of their votes. This could adversely impact the Conservatives in some of their marginal seats. The LibDems are in second place in some marginal seats and are starting to actively campaign for a hung parliament. Our best guess is that an election is likely to be called in late March 2010 and will be a very hard and bitterly fought election campaign. So stand by for some fireworks, class warfare and heated debates in 2010. The Conservative party would be wise not to assume that a clear victory is in the bag and I am sure that their campaign team and advisers are all too aware of that fact.

About EMBG

The Ethnic Minority Business Group (EMBG) was established in 1995 to support and represent ethnic minority businesses in Hertfordshire. It is not-for-profit organisation with 1200 members. Alok Mitra, a Chartered Accountant, is currently the Managing Director of CJM Consultants Ltd and Partner in his accountancy practice. Alok is the Chair of the EMBG and advises on business and economic affairs for the Hindu Council UK.

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